Open AccessPERAMALAN EKSPOR LUAR NEGERI BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMAX
Author(s) -
Saeful Hidayat,
Nisrina Hakim
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
jurnal lebesgue
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2721-8937
pISSN - 2721-8929
DOI - 10.46306/lb.v2i2.75
Subject(s) - purchasing , index (typography) , operations research , value (mathematics) , autoregressive integrated moving average , business , operations management , government (linguistics) , computer science , statistics , economics , mathematics , time series , linguistics , philosophy , world wide web
Forecasting Banten exports is one of the important elements for formulating economic growth targets in the development planning document prepared by the Banten Provincial Government. The purpose of this study is to forecast exports by utilizing export data from the BPS and the United States manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) which is derived from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The results showed that the ARIMAX model has a very good forecasting ability. This is indicated by the MAPE value which reached 8.84 percent. However, forecasting accuracy will decrease as the forecasting time span increases