
Forecasting Model of Production and Price of Grains Commodity in Central Sulawesi
Author(s) -
- Muhardi,
Dizzi Evansyah,
Made Antara,
. Effendy
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2309-0685
DOI - 10.46300/9103.2021.9.8
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , production (economics) , commodity , food security , agricultural economics , economics , consumption (sociology) , food prices , indonesian , government (linguistics) , econometrics , time series , microeconomics , mathematics , statistics , geography , agriculture , market economy , social science , linguistics , philosophy , archaeology , sociology
Food derives from biological resources, animals, and water, whether processed or not processed, meant as food or drink for human consumption. Food commodities have often been referred to as staples or basic needs of Indonesian people and others. The availability of staples has played a strategic role in stabilizing food security, economic security, and national political stability, leading to the issue of availability of staples receiving very serious attention from the Indonesia government. This study analyzed the best model of production forecasting and prices of rice and corn in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study used the ARIMA method to predict the production and prices of rice and corn. The results of the analysis showed that the best model was the forecasting model of ARIMA rice production (4,0,0) with decreasing production forecast data trends and corn with the ARIMA model (1,0,0) with increasing production forecast data trends. The forecasting model of ARIMA rice price (2,2,0) with decreasing price forecast data trends and ARIMA corn prices (2,2,0) with increasing price forecast data trends.