The Influence of Armenian Elite Groups on Relations with Russia after the Power Transition

Small states in the Post-Soviet area have to make a geopolitical choice by leaning towards one of the great powers. The peaceful power transition that took place in Armenia in Spring-Fall 2018 was described by some Russian experts as “a color revolution” actively supported by external actors. However, it was exactly this unique case in which, despite such external influence, Armenian protesters did not demand a change in the geopolitical orientation of the country. Still, in spite of the preservation of the alliance between Russia and Armenia, part of Nikol Pashinyan’s team is evidently oriented to the West. Having conducted focus groups and in-depth interviews with Armenian experts, the authors try to answer the following questions: what is the structure of the Armenian establishment? What do its representatives think of the strategy of Armenia-Russia relations? What messages are they sending to the Russian audience? The authors are convinced that it was not a revolution, though called a “velvet revolution”, but a change of the elite groups. The political system remains as it was, institutions have not been demolished or upgraded. The partnership between Russia and Armenia is still characterized as strategic. Nevertheless, there is some misunderstanding between the current authorities in Russia and Armenia. It has to do not only with the generation and ideological gaps between Russian and Armenian officials but also with the lack of communication between Nikol Pashinyan’s team and Russian decision-makers. The problem is that the Armenian elites do not understand Russia as they do not have an experience of dealing with the country. Hence the importance of enhanced coordination among Russian organizations advancing Russia’s soft power in Armenia.