Open AccessThe estimation of seismic risk for central Italy
Author(s) -
Michèle Caputo,
V. I. KeilisBorok,
Tatiana Kronrod,
G. Molchan,
G. F. Panza,
A. Piva,
V. M. Podgaetskaja,
D. Postpischi
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
annals of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.394
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 2037-416X
pISSN - 1593-5213
DOI - 10.4401/ag-4928
Subject(s) - epicenter , poisson distribution , estimation , intensity (physics) , geology , position (finance) , magnitude (astronomy) , basis (linear algebra) , computation , seismology , distribution (mathematics) , geodesy , statistics , mathematics , algorithm , geometry , mathematical analysis , physics , management , finance , quantum mechanics , astronomy , economics
The estimation of seismic risk is made for three types
of objects in the central Italy, considering three kinds of models:
1) - A(2I,g): the intensity of the Poisson's flow of earthquakes, M
being the magnitude, g the liypocentre.
2) - I(g,g,M): giving the distribution on the surface for a single
earthquake (g,M), g being the epicentre.
3) - x(g,I): giving the effect x of the shakings of intensity / , g being
the position of the object.
For actual decision-making additional computations may be necessary
in order to estimate how our results are influenced by the errors in
these models. However practical decision can be made on the basis of these
data, because the experience shows that normally results are exagerated