Open AccessParametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy
Author(s) -
G. Di Bello,
V. Lapenna,
M. Macchiato,
Claudio Satriano,
Carmine Serio,
Valerio Tramutoli
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
annals of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.394
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 2037-416X
pISSN - 1593-5213
DOI - 10.4401/ag-3947
Subject(s) - autoregressive model , series (stratigraphy) , residual , time series , geology , seismology , parametric statistics , statistics , computer science , algorithm , mathematics , paleontology
An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below) an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects), it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors