Open AccessProbabilistic seismic hazard maps for the North Balkan region
Author(s) -
R. M. W. Musson
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
annals of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.394
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 2037-416X
pISSN - 1593-5213
DOI - 10.4401/ag-3772
Subject(s) - seismology , induced seismicity , geology , seismic hazard , peak ground acceleration , tectonics , probabilistic logic , hazard , ground motion , statistics , chemistry , mathematics , organic chemistry
A set of seismic hazard maps, expressed as horizontal peak ground acceleration, have been computed for a large area of Central and Eastern Europe covering the North Balkan area (Former Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania). These are based on: a) a compound earthquake catalogue for the region; b) a seismic source model of 50 zones compiled on the basis of tectonic divisions and seismicity, and c) a probabilistic methodology using stochastic (Monte Carlo) modelling. It is found that the highest hazard in the region comes from intermediate focus earthquakes occurring in the Vrancea seismic zone; here the hazard exceeds 0.4 g at return periods of 475 years. Special account has been taken of the directional nature of attenuation from this source