Open AccessFlood forecasting in the Tiber catchment area: a methodological analysis
Author(s) -
Guido Calenda,
M. Casaioli,
Claudia Cosentino,
Roberto Mantovani,
Antonio Speranza
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
annals of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.394
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 2037-416X
pISSN - 1593-5213
DOI - 10.4401/ag-3680
Subject(s) - precipitation , flood forecasting , drainage basin , flood myth , surface runoff , environmental science , climatology , meteorology , quantitative precipitation forecast , structural basin , hydrology (agriculture) , geology , geography , cartography , geomorphology , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , ecology , biology
The most difficult step in hydrological forecasting is precipitation forecast, since rain is the most irregular and least predictable meteorological field. Numerical meteorological models are the main tool to forecast the precipitation field over river basins where floods may be expected. Object of this paper is a preliminary analysis of the appropriate methodological approach to flood forecasting in the Tiber River basin. An assessment of the flood forecasting skill of a meteorological limited area model, coupled with a lumped rainfall-runoff model, is performed. The main indications which seem to arise are that integral precipitation over the catchment area is adequately forecast in its time-evolution, but the total rainfall shows a systematic deficit with respect to observations