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The hydrologic regime of perched lakes in the Mackenzie Delta: Potential responses to climate change
Author(s) -
Marsh Philip,
Lesack Lance F. W.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
limnology and oceanography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.7
H-Index - 197
eISSN - 1939-5590
pISSN - 0024-3590
DOI - 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0849
Subject(s) - delta , precipitation , environmental science , gcm transcription factors , climate change , climatology , flooding (psychology) , water level , closure (psychology) , hydrology (agriculture) , climate model , atmospheric sciences , geology , general circulation model , oceanography , meteorology , geography , psychology , cartography , geotechnical engineering , aerospace engineering , economics , engineering , market economy , psychotherapist
To illustrate potential impacts of climate change on perched or high‐closure lakes in the Mackenzie Delta, we developed and tested a simulation model. Comparison of model output with measured lake level demonstrates that the model simulates the major features of the annual hydrologic regime of high‐closure delta lakes. To demonstrate potential changes in lake regime, we used a 12‐yr empirical data set of temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and main‐channel water level for the model runs, with the temperature and precipitation modified using results from a 2 × CO 2 GCM (general circulation model) run. With these data, modeled water levels for a high‐closure lake decline more rapidly between episodes of flooding, ice covers are thinner, and the ice‐covered season is much shorter than at present. If precipitation were to decrease slightly instead of increasing slightly as suggested by the GCM, the decrease in lake level between flooding episodes is much faster, and a typical high‐closure lake would disappear within 10 yr.