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Estimating water temperatures and time of ice formation on the Saint Lawrence River
Author(s) -
Adams Charles E.
Publication year - 1976
Publication title -
limnology and oceanography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.7
H-Index - 197
eISSN - 1939-5590
pISSN - 0024-3590
DOI - 10.4319/lo.1976.21.1.0128
Subject(s) - environmental science , convection , evaporation , precipitation , climatology , atmospheric sciences , hydrology (agriculture) , thermodynamics , meteorology , geology , physics , geotechnical engineering
Monthly mean heat losses from the surface of the St. Lawrence River during the fall‐winter cooling period were determined by an empirical heat budget which incorporated the processes of radiation, conduction, convection, and precipitation. Calculations indicate that the heat loss can be reasonably represented by a simple linear relation with air‐water temperature differential. It is suggested however, that the coefficient of proportionality changes with variations in the ratio of radiation to evaporation. An equation was evaluated which relates surface heat loss to temperature decline along the international section of the river. Within the limits of accuracy of the heat loss calculations, the equation provides adequate estimates of water temperature changes for the period of study. The water temperature decline equation was used as the basis for developing a prediction technique which enables river freeze‐up estimates to be made as early as 1 October. When observed freeze‐up dates were used, predictions for a 6‐year period (1965–1970) yielded standard deviations of 4.7, 3.3, and 3.5 days for predictions starting at the beginning of October, November, and December. Observed freeze‐up occurred within 2 days of the predicted date in 4 of the 6 years examined. Experimental predictions for two additional years yielded similar results.