Open AccessSummer temperature and all-cause mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad, India
Author(s) -
Suresh Kumar Rathi,
P.R. Sodani
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
african health sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.391
H-Index - 44
eISSN - 1729-0503
pISSN - 1680-6905
DOI - 10.4314/ahs.v21i3.59
Subject(s) - medicine , extreme heat , demography , mortality rate , maximum temperature , apparent temperature , distributed lag , cause of death , population , bivariate analysis , extreme cold , environmental health , climatology , statistics , climate change , geography , meteorology , disease , humidity , biology , sociology , ecology , mathematics , geology
Background: Studies have documented a significant association between temperature and all-cause mortality for various cities but such data are unavailable for Hyderabad City.
Objective: The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad city population.
Methods: We obtained the data on temperature and all-cause mortality for at least ten years for summer months. Descriptive and Bivariate analysis were conducted. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality for lag time effect.
Results: A total of 122,117 deaths for 1,220 summer days (2006 to 2015) were analyzed with mean daily all-cause mortality was 100.1±21.5. There is an increase of 16% and 17% per day mean all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of ≥40oC and for extreme danger days (Heat Index >54oC) respectively. The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with maximum temperature (P < 0.001) and Heat Index from caution to extreme danger risk days (P < 0.0183). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at peak on same day of the maximum temperature (r = 0.273 at p<0.01).
Conclusion: The study concludes that the impact of ambient heat in the rise of all-cause mortality is clearly evident (16% mean deaths/day). There was no lag effect from the effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality as the peak period was the same as the maximum temperature. Hence heat action plans are needed. However, extreme heat-related mortality merits further analysis.
Keywords: Heat wave; all-cause mortality; urban; humidity; heat index; India.