Open AccessComparison of survival models and assessment of risk factors for survival of cardiovascular patients at Addis Ababa Cardiac Center, Ethiopia: a retrospective study
Author(s) -
Belaynesh Yeniew Enyew,
Zeytu Gashaw Asfaw
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
african health sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.391
H-Index - 44
eISSN - 1729-0503
pISSN - 1680-6905
DOI - 10.4314/ahs.v21i3.29
Subject(s) - medicine , retrospective cohort study , hazard ratio , survival analysis , proportional hazards model , emergency medicine , confidence interval
Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is disorders of heart and blood vessels. It is a major health problem across the world,and 82% of CVD deaths is contributed by countries with low and middle income. The aim of this study was to choose appropriate model for the survival of cardiovascular patients data and identify the factors that affect the survival of cardiovascular patients at Addis Ababa Cardiac Center.
Method: A Retrospective study was conducted on patients under follow-up at Addis Ababa Cardiac Center between Sep- tember 2010 to December 2018. The patients included have made either post operation or pre-operation. Out of 1042 car- diac patients, a sample of 332 were selected for the current study using simple random sampling technique. Non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric survival models were used and comparisons were made to select the appropriate predicting model.
Results: Among the sample of 332 cardiac patients, only 67(20.2%) experienced CVD and the remaining 265(79.8%) were censored. The median and the maximum survival time of cardiac patients was 1925 and 1403 days respectively.The estimated hazard ratio of male patients to female patients is 1.926214 (95%CI: 1.111917-3.336847; p = 0.019) implying that the risk of death of male patients is 1.926214 times higher than female cardiac patients keeping the other covariates constant in the model. Even if, all semi parametric and parametric survival models tted to the current data well, various model comparison criteria showed that parametric/weibull AFT survival model is better than the other.
Conclusions: The governmental and non-governmental stakeholders should pay attention to give training on the risk fac- tors identied on the current study to optimize individual’s knowledge and awareness so that death due to CVDs can be minimized.
Keywords: Cardiovascular patient; survival analysis; non-parametric; semi-parametric; parametric.