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The Aggregate Production Function of the Finnish Economy in the Twentieth Century
Author(s) -
Luoma Arto,
Luoto Jani
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
southern economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 2325-8012
pISSN - 0038-4038
DOI - 10.4284/sej.2010.76.3.723
Subject(s) - economics , constant elasticity of substitution , econometrics , profit maximization , production function , bayesian probability , profit (economics) , elasticity of substitution , maximum likelihood , elasticity (physics) , likelihood function , production (economics) , mathematics , microeconomics , statistics , materials science , composite material
This article uses the Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of the normalized constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function with factor‐augmenting technical progress directly, rather than using derived first‐order conditions of profit maximizing behavior. Bayesian estimation is applied because maximum likelihood estimation is sensitive to the starting values of maximization, and the parameters typically fail to converge to the global optimum because of a multimodal likelihood. Thanks to a convenient prior distribution, the posterior simulation of parameters works fairly well. The results indicate that in the long run (over 100 years) the parameters for the elasticity of substitution and capital income share are intimately linked to the shape of capital‐augmenting technological progress. In particular, the linear restriction excludes the possibility that the speed of capital‐augmenting technological progress converges to zero, which seems to lead to upwardly biased estimates of the elasticity of substitution and income share parameters.