Estimating Local Welfare Generated by an NFL Team under Credible Threat of Relocation

This study offers the opportunity to examine the welfare contribution of the Minnesota Vikings to Minnesota households in the context of a credible threat of team relocation. We find the credibility of the threat of relocation is essential to providing unbiased estimates of welfare. This study utilizes contingent valuation methodology (CVM) and a random utility model (RUM) to analyze Minnesotans' decision‐making mechanisms for supporting a new stadium initiative. While previous studies have attempted to measure the welfare associated with a sports franchise, we develop and discuss bias that may be imparted to estimates when the researcher fails to calculate a “choke price.” Further, we develop an unbiased approach to identify welfare when respondents perceive a risk of losing the franchise. The range of welfare contribution by the Vikings to households in Minnesota is $;445.3 million to $;1,571.3 million according to a 95% confidence interval based on our study.