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Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries
Author(s) -
Caglayan Mustafa,
Dahi Omar S.,
Demir Firat
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
southern economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 2325-8012
pISSN - 0038-4038
DOI - 10.4284/0038-4038-2011.174
Subject(s) - exchange rate , economics , international economics , emerging markets , developing country , monetary economics , international trade , macroeconomics , economic growth
This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.