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Risk Aversion and the Winner's Curse
Author(s) -
Holt Charles A.,
Sherman Roger
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
southern economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 2325-8012
pISSN - 0038-4038
DOI - 10.4284/0038-4038-2011.013
Subject(s) - winner's curse , curse , bidding , risk aversion (psychology) , economics , value (mathematics) , common value auction , econometrics , mathematical economics , microeconomics , expected utility hypothesis , mathematics , statistics , sociology , anthropology
This article analyzes an auction in which bidders see independent components of a common prize value. The Nash equilibrium for two rational bidders is shown to be independent of risk attitudes. The information structure allows explicit calculation of an alternative equilibrium in which naive bidders do not correctly discount the value of the prize, contingent on winning, and thus they suffer the winner's curse. Subjects in a laboratory experiment clearly fall prey to the winner's curse; the data conform most closely to the predictions of the naive model. Moreover, the level of risk aversion implied by fitting the naive model is similar to an independent risk aversion measure obtained in a separate (private value) bidding exercise.