Impact of Antibiotic Resistance on Treatment of Pneumococcal Disease in Ethiopia: An Agent-Based Modeling Simulation

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to global health. Although AMR endangers continued effectiveness of antibiotics, the impact of AMR has been poorly estimated in low-income countries. This study sought to quantify the effect of AMR on treatments for pediatric pneumococcal disease in Ethiopia. We developed the DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model that simulate children younger than 5 years who acquire pneumococcal disease (pneumonia, meningitis, and acute otitis media) and seek treatment from various health facilities in Ethiopia over a year. We examined the AMR levels of three antibiotics (penicillin, amoxicillin, and ceftriaxone), treatment failures, and attributable deaths. We used the cost-of-illness method to assess the resulting economic impact of AMR from a societal perspective by estimating the direct and indirect treatment costs and productivity losses. Findings showed that AMR against antibiotics that were used to treat pneumococcal disease led to 195,763 treatment failures per year, which contributed to 2,925 child deaths annually in Ethiopia. Antimicrobial resistance resulted in a first-line treatment failure rate of 29.4%. In 1 year, the proportion of nonsusceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria increased by 2.1% and 0.5% for amoxicillin and penicillin, and reduced by 0.3% for less commonly used ceftriaxone. Annual costs of AMR to treat pneumococcal disease were around US$15.8 million, including US$3.3 million for ineffective first-line treatments, US$3.7 million for second-line treatments, and US$8.9 million for long-term productivity losses. Antibiotic stewardship to reduce misuse and overuse of antibiotics is essential to maintain the effectiveness of antibiotics, and lessen the health and economic burden of AMR.