Open AccessPlausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: A mathematical modelling based analysis
Author(s) -
Sandip Mandal,
Nimalan Arinaminpathy,
Balram Bhargava,
Samiran Panda
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
indian journal of medical research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.578
H-Index - 87
ISSN - 0971-5916
DOI - 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_1627_21
Subject(s) - third wave , transmission (telecommunications) , context (archaeology) , immunity , immune system , limiting , virology , biology , covid-19 , immunology , medicine , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , telecommunications , computer science , mechanical engineering , paleontology , political economy , pathology , sociology , engineering
In the context of India's ongoing resurgence of COVID-19 (second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020), there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. Using simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, this study examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur.