Open AccessA demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population
Author(s) -
A.M. Woodd
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
koedoe
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.419
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 2071-0771
pISSN - 0075-6458
DOI - 10.4102/koedoe.v42i1.226
Subject(s) - national park , population , population growth , population size , growth model , population model , geography , ecology , demography , biology , mathematics , mathematical economics , sociology
An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained