Open AccessPREVISIONI INCERTE DECISIONI DIFFICILI
Author(s) -
Elisa Guagenti Grandori
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
rendiconti. classe di scienze matematiche e naturali
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2384-986X
pISSN - 1974-6989
DOI - 10.4081/scie.2014.173
Subject(s) - credibility , risk analysis (engineering) , decision process , computer science , forensic engineering , management science , engineering , business , political science , law
This work focuses on decision problems concerning risk reduction in the case of catastrophic events, which are scarsely predictable but associated to severe expected damage. A cryterium is outlined in order to judge the relative credibility of competing models. The knowledge-decision process is dissected in its components. The steps of the procedure from knowledge to final decision are analyzed. The effectiveness of short-term prediction and the choice of the acceptable risk are also discussed. A few case studies, related to earthquakes, landslides and pollution, are exposed.