Open AccessSimulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil
Author(s) -
Gabriela Leite Neves,
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho,
Maysa de Lima Leite,
Frederico Fábio Mauad
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
acta scientiarum. technology/acta scientiarum. technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.183
H-Index - 17
eISSN - 1807-8664
pISSN - 1806-2563
DOI - 10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.56026
Subject(s) - environmental science , water balance , climate change , water resources , climatology , climate change scenario , climate model , downscaling , resource (disambiguation) , water resource management , meteorology , geography , precipitation , computer science , ecology , computer network , geotechnical engineering , engineering , biology , geology
Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context