Open AccessTime-series forecasting and analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in highly populated countries- A data-driven approach
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
international journal of e-health and medical communications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.151
H-Index - 12
eISSN - 1947-3168
pISSN - 1947-315X
DOI - 10.4018/ijehmc.20220701oa03
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , time series , covid-19 , outbreak , geography , operations research , data set , econometrics , computer science , statistics , engineering , infectious disease (medical specialty) , mathematics , artificial intelligence , medicine , virology , disease , pathology
A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.