Open AccessPolicy discontinuity and duration outcomes
Author(s) -
Berg Gerard J.,
Bozio Antoine,
Costa Dias Mónica
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
quantitative economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.062
H-Index - 27
eISSN - 1759-7331
pISSN - 1759-7323
DOI - 10.3982/qe639
Subject(s) - regression discontinuity design , duration (music) , anticipation (artificial intelligence) , hazard ratio , econometrics , hazard , moment (physics) , discontinuity (linguistics) , economics , outcome (game theory) , proportional hazards model , demographic economics , statistics , computer science , confidence interval , mathematics , microeconomics , art , mathematical analysis , chemistry , physics , literature , organic chemistry , classical mechanics , artificial intelligence
Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identification of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.