Premium
An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
Author(s) -
Greenwood Jeremy,
Kircher Philipp,
Santos Cezar,
Tertilt Michèle
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
econometrica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 16.7
H-Index - 199
eISSN - 1468-0262
pISSN - 0012-9682
DOI - 10.3982/ecta11530
Subject(s) - casual , condom , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , population , developing country , psychological intervention , medicine , demography , econometrics , economics , environmental health , family medicine , economic growth , sociology , political science , psychiatry , syphilis , law
Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.