Open AccessMeasuring the mobility impact on the COVID-19 pandemic
Author(s) -
Thyago Celso Cavalcante Nepomuceno,
Thalles Vitelli Garcez,
Lúcio Camara E Silva,
Artur Paiva Coutinho
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2022332
Subject(s) - recreation , pandemic , geography , covid-19 , context (archaeology) , socioeconomic status , geographic mobility , econometrics , public transport , population , demographic economics , transport engineering , economics , demography , sociology , political science , engineering , medicine , disease , archaeology , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , law
This assessment aims at measuring the impact of different location mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic. Data over time and over the 27 Brazilian federations in 5 regions provided by Google's COVID-19 community mobility reports and classified by place categories (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences) are autoregressed on the COVID-19 incidence in Brazil using generalized linear regressions to measure the aggregate dynamic impact of mobility on each socioeconomic category. The work provides a novel multicriteria approach for selecting the most appropriate estimation model in the context of this application. Estimations for the time gap between contagion and data disclosure for public authorities' decision-making, estimations regarding the propagation rate, and the marginal mobility contribution for each place category are also provided. We report the pandemic evolution on the dimensions of cases and a geostatistical analysis evaluating the most critical cities in Brazil based on optimized hotspots with a brief discussion on the effects of population density and the carnival.