Open AccessA hybrid model for forecasting of particulate matter concentrations based on multiscale characterization and machine learning techniques
Author(s) -
Syed Ahsin Ali Shah,
Wajid Aziz,
Majid Almaraashi,
Malik Sajjad Ahmed Nadeem,
Nazneen Habib,
SeongO Shim
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2021104
Subject(s) - adaboost , mean squared error , support vector machine , artificial neural network , algorithm , artificial intelligence , machine learning , time series , root mean square , mathematics , computer science , statistics , engineering , electrical engineering
Accurate prediction of particulate matter (PM) using time series data is a challenging task. The recent advancements in sensor technology, computing devices, nonlinear computational tools, and machine learning (ML) approaches provide new opportunities for robust prediction of PM concentrations. In this study, we develop a hybrid model for forecasting PM 10 and PM 2.5 based on the multiscale characterization and ML techniques. At first, we use the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm for multiscale characterization of PM 10 and PM 2.5 by decomposing the original time series into numerous intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Different individual ML algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), feed forward neural network (FFNN), and AdaBoost are then used to develop EMD-ML models. The air quality time series data from Masfalah air station Makkah, Saudi Arabia are utilized for validating the EMD-ML models, and results are compared with non-hybrid ML models. The PMs (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) concentrations data of Dehli, India are also utilized for validating the EMD-ML models. The performance of each model is evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The average bias in the predictive model is estimated using mean bias error (MBE). Obtained results reveal that EMD-FFNN model provides the lowest error rate for both PM 10 (RMSE = 12.25 and MAE = 7.43) and PM 2.5 (RMSE = 4.81 and MAE = 3.02) using Misfalah, Makkah data whereas EMD-kNN model provides the lowest error rate for PM 10 (RMSE = 20.56 and MAE = 12.87) and EMD-AdaBoost provides the lowest error rate for PM 2.5 (RMSE = 15.29 and MAE = 9.45) using Dehli, India data. The findings also reveal that EMD-ML models can be effectively used in forecasting PM mass concentrations and to develop rapid air quality warning systems.