Open AccessModeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak
Author(s) -
Fernando Saldaña,
Hugo Flores-Argüedas,
José Ariel Camacho-Gutíerrez,
Ignacio Barradas
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2020231
Subject(s) - outbreak , social distance , quarantine , transmission (telecommunications) , psychological intervention , covid-19 , basic reproduction number , isolation (microbiology) , control (management) , government (linguistics) , environmental health , econometrics , geography , computer science , economics , psychology , medicine , virology , ecology , biology , disease , telecommunications , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , philosophy , artificial intelligence , psychiatry , linguistics , pathology , microbiology and biotechnology
In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.