Open AccessPredicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data
Author(s) -
Zhi Hua Liu,
Pierre Magal,
Ousmane Seydi,
Glenn Webb
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2020172
Subject(s) - covid-19 , china , asymptomatic , coronavirus , epidemic model , pandemic , identification (biology) , demography , statistics , virology , geography , medicine , mathematics , outbreak , biology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology , population , botany , disease , archaeology
We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.