Open AccessParameter estimation of modeling schistosomiasis transmission for four provinces in China
Author(s) -
Longxing Qi,
Tang Yan-wu,
ShouFu Tian
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2019047
Subject(s) - smoothing , estimation , schistosomiasis , statistics , basic reproduction number , china , transmission (telecommunications) , mathematics , geography , econometrics , computer science , biology , demography , population , engineering , zoology , telecommunications , systems engineering , archaeology , helminths , sociology
According to monitoring data of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu Provinces, in this paper the transmission of schistosomiasis is studied based on Barbour's mathematical model. The values of the basic reproduction number and key parameters are obtained with two methods. The first method is to calculate directly by using parameter values in references. The second one is to estimate parameter values by the methods of noise measurement and data smoothing and then to obtain new values of basic reproduction number. Comparing these two methods, we found the second method is good to fit the data. This parameter values can be used as reference values in other provinces. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to discuss the development trend of prevalence of humans and snails in each province. It is found that schistosomiasis in four provinces is expected to be eliminated with the improvement or maintenance of the standards of prevention and control. Furthermore, the time needed is different in the different four provinces.