Open AccessEbola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction
Author(s) -
Xiang-Sheng Wang,
Luoyi Zhong
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055
Subject(s) - inflection point , outbreak , estimation , basic reproduction number , geography , statistics , econometrics , mathematics , computer science , demography , biology , economics , virology , sociology , population , geometry , management
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.