Open AccessModelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China
Author(s) -
Yangjun Ma,
Maoxing Liu,
Qiang Hou,
Jinqing Zhao
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
mathematical biosciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.451
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1551-0018
pISSN - 1547-1063
DOI - 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159
Subject(s) - hand foot and mouth disease , china , transmission (telecommunications) , disease , basic reproduction number , biology , virology , environmental health , demography , geography , medicine , computer science , pathology , population , telecommunications , archaeology , sociology
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.