Open AccessDynamic discrete-time portfolio selection for defined contribution pension funds with inflation risk
Author(s) -
Haixiang Yao,
Ping Chen,
Miao Zhang,
Xun Li
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of industrial and management optimization
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.325
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1553-166X
pISSN - 1547-5816
DOI - 10.3934/jimo.2020166
Subject(s) - inflation (cosmology) , portfolio , efficient frontier , econometrics , discrete time and continuous time , economics , pension , time horizon , dynamic programming , selection (genetic algorithm) , computer science , mathematical optimization , mathematics , financial economics , finance , statistics , physics , theoretical physics , artificial intelligence
This paper investigates a multi-period asset allocation problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund facing stochastic inflation under the Markowitz mean-variance criterion. The stochastic inflation rate is described by a discrete-time version of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. To the best of our knowledge, the literature along the line of dynamic portfolio selection under inflation is dominated by continuous-time models. This paper is the first work to investigate the problem in a discrete-time setting. Using the techniques of state variable transformation, matrix theory, and dynamic programming, we derive the analytical expressions for the efficient investment strategy and the efficient frontier. Moreover, our model's exceptional cases are discussed, indicating that our theoretical results are consistent with the existing literature. Finally, the results established are tested through empirical studies based on Australia's data, where there is a typical DC pension system. The impacts of inflation, investment horizon, estimation error, and superannuation guarantee rate on the efficient frontier are illustrated.