Open AccessMathematical modeling of algal blooms due to swine CAFOs in Eastern North Carolina
Author(s) -
A Henderson,
Emek Köse,
Allison Lewis,
Ellen R. Swanson
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
discrete and continuous dynamical systems. series s
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.481
H-Index - 34
eISSN - 1937-1632
pISSN - 1937-1179
DOI - 10.3934/dcdss.2021151
Subject(s) - estuary , environmental science , nutrient , water quality , manure , algal bloom , eutrophication , ecosystem , algae , environmental engineering , hydrology (agriculture) , fishery , ecology , biology , phytoplankton , geology , geotechnical engineering
Dramatic strides have been made in treating human waste to remove pathogens and excess nutrients before discharge into the environment, to the benefit of ground and surface water quality. Yet these advances have been undermined by the dramatic growth of Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) which produce voluminous quantities of untreated waste. Industrial swine routinely produce waste streams similar to that of a municipality, yet these wastes are held in open-pit "lagoons" which are at risk of rupture or overflow. Eastern North Carolina is a coastal plain with productive estuaries which are imperiled by more than 2000 permitted swine facilities housing over 9 million hogs; the associated 3,500 permitted manure lagoons pose a risk to sensitive estuarine ecosystems, as breaches or overflows send large plumes of nutrient and pathogen-rich waste into surface waters. Understanding the relationship between nutrient pulses and surface water quality in coastal environments is essential to effective CAFO policy formation. In this work, we develop a system of ODEs to model algae growth in a coastal estuary due to a manure lagoon breach and investigate nutrient thresholds above which algal blooms are unresolvable.