Open AccessModeling the second outbreak of COVID-19 with isolation and contact tracing
Author(s) -
Haitao Song,
Fang Liu,
Feng Li,
Xiaochun Cao,
Hao Wang,
Zhongwei Jia,
Huaiping Zhu,
Michael Y. Li,
Wei Lin,
Hong Yang,
Jianghong Hu,
Zhen Jin
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
discrete and continuous dynamical systems. series b
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.864
H-Index - 53
eISSN - 1553-524X
pISSN - 1531-3492
DOI - 10.3934/dcdsb.2021294
Subject(s) - contact tracing , covid-19 , outbreak , basic reproduction number , isolation (microbiology) , china , transmission (telecommunications) , geography , demography , virology , environmental health , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , biology , computer science , telecommunications , sociology , pathology , population , archaeology , microbiology and biotechnology
The first case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, COVID-19 has quickly spread out to all provinces in China and over 150 countries or territories in the world. With the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) launched over the country, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China is achieving under control in China. We develop a mathematical model based on the epidemiology of COVID-19, incorporating the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and contact tracing measures. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers 2.5 in China (excluding Hubei province) and 2.9 in Hubei province with the initial time on January 30 which shows the severe infectivity of COVID-19, and verify that the current isolation method effectively contains the transmission of COVID-19. Under the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and contact tracing measures, we find a noteworthy phenomenon that is the second epidemic of COVID-19 and estimate the peak time and value and the cumulative number of cases. Simulations show that the contact tracing measures can efficiently contain the transmission of the second epidemic of COVID-19. With the isolation of all susceptible people or all infectious people or both, there is no second epidemic of COVID-19. Furthermore, resumption of work and study can increase the transmission risk of the second epidemic of COVID-19.