Using air thermal time to predict the time course of seedling emergence of <i>Avena sterilis</i> subsp. <i>sterilis</i> (sterile oat) under Mediterranean climate

Avena sterilis subsp. sterilis (sterile oat) is a troublesome grass weed of winter cereals both in its native range encompassing the Mediterranean up to South Asia, and in regions of America, Northern Europe and Australia where it is introduced. A better understanding of seedling emergence patterns of this weed in cereal fields can help control at early growth stages benefiting efficacy under a changing climate. With this aim, the objective of this research was to develop and validate a field emergence model for this weed based on cumulative air thermal time (CTT, ℃ day). Experiments for model setting and evaluation were carried out in experimental and commercial fields in southern Spain. Two alternative models, Gompertz and Weibull, were compared for their ability to represent emergence time course. The Weibull model provided the best fit to the data. Evaluation through independent experiments showed good model performance in predicting seedling emergence. According to the developed model, the onset of emergence takes place at 130 CTT, and 50% and 90% emergence is achieved at 448 and 632 CTT, respectively. Results indicate that this model could be useful for growers as a tool for decision-making in A. sterilis control.