Open AccessPrognostics Methods of Security Phenomena
Author(s) -
Josef Smolík
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
vojenské rozhledy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2336-2995
pISSN - 1210-3292
DOI - 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.01.03-24
Subject(s) - prognostics , brainstorming , computer science , focus (optics) , extrapolation , delphi method , czech , milestone , risk analysis (engineering) , data science , management science , artificial intelligence , engineering , data mining , statistics , medicine , mathematics , geography , linguistics , physics , philosophy , archaeology , optics
This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.