Open AccessBack to the Future: Counterfactuals and Scenarios in Defense Research and Planning
Author(s) -
Jan Kofroň
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
vojenské rozhledy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2336-2995
pISSN - 1210-3292
DOI - 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.048-061
Subject(s) - counterfactual conditional , embeddedness , management science , computer science , empirical evidence , data science , epistemology , counterfactual thinking , economics , sociology , social science , philosophy
Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.