Open AccessPREDICTING THE SCHEDULE AND COST PERFORMANCE IN PUBLIC SCHOOL BUILDING PROJECTS IN TAIWAN
Author(s) -
YiKai Juan,
Ling-Er Liou
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of civil engineering and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1822-3605
pISSN - 1392-3730
DOI - 10.3846/jcem.2021.15853
Subject(s) - christian ministry , schedule , earned value management , reliability (semiconductor) , delphi method , control (management) , artificial neural network , estimation , delphi , computer science , business , engineering , operations research , operations management , project management , project management triangle , systems engineering , artificial intelligence , opm3 , political science , operating system , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , law
The Ministry of Education (MOE) of Taiwan invests about NTD 30 billion a year in Public School Building Projects (PSBPs). However, 95% of the PSBPs have been extended and have incurred increased costs. A PSBP performance evaluation and prediction system was established by using the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), association rules and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sixty-two Taiwanese PSBPs were used as the samples, while eleven high correlation factors that influence the project performance of PSBPs were defined, and the reasons leading to the poor project performance were discussed in this study. Moreover, the results of the test cases operated by ANN showed that the accuracy rate for schedule and cost variability predictions can reach 84%. The high accuracy rate indicated the reliability of priority control for high-risk projects in the future. The proposed approach can be provided to clients, design and construction firms, and project managers to understand the project performance in real time and to establish a dynamic tracking review and response measures for improving the overall project satisfaction.