Open AccessFiscal Deficit of Rajasthan: Trends, Cycles and Seasonal
Author(s) -
Debesh Bhowmik
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
international journal of innovative science and research technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2456-2165
DOI - 10.38124/ijisrt20sep240
Subject(s) - heteroscedasticity , economics , autoregressive integrated moving average , econometrics , trough (economics) , mathematics , gross domestic product , seasonal adjustment , statistics , time series , macroeconomics , variable (mathematics) , mathematical analysis
The paper has explored the smooth cyclical trend,cycles and seasonal patterns of fiscal deficit in gross and in per cent of net state domestic product of Rajasthan in current prices during 1990-91-2018-19 by applying Hamilton regression filter model(2018) which was also passed through ARIMA(p,d,q) forecasting model for 2030 and was also verified by heteroscedasticity test.Both the fiscal deficits in gross and in per cent of NSDP showed many peaks and troughs in cyclical patterns but only one peak and trough were found in the smooth cyclical trends and the inverse v shaped seasonal fluctuations were visible with no heteroscedasticity problems.Their ARIMA forecast models for 2030 are convergent,significant and move towards equilibrium.