Forecasting Korean Arrivals in the Philippines | Zendy

Enrique Raphael Versoza | Zendy; Sofia Elaine Romarate | Zendy; Jacque Bon-Isaac Aboy | Zendy

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Forecasting Korean Arrivals in the Philippines

Author(s) -

Enrique Raphael Versoza,

Sofia Elaine Romarate,

Jacque Bon-Isaac Aboy

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

international journal of innovative science and research technology (ijisrt)

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

ISSN - 2456-2165

DOI - 10.38124/ijisrt20sep081

Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , tourism , econometrics , geography , value (mathematics) , moving average , time series , statistics , climatology , meteorology , economics , mathematics , geology , archaeology

This paper investigates the rise of South Korean tourism in the Philippines from 2014 to 2018 and explain its behavior year-to-year, and the other part is to forecast it’s growth or decline in the next following years; all of this is done through a Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modelling framework. Results reveal that Korean arrivals were best modelled through a ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂ model, with residuals that are randomly distributed and contain no autocorrelations and an AICc value of -36.18, the lowest among the tested variations of the model, the model is the most appropriate to forecast the data for a 3-year period.

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