Open AccessA brief guide to producing a national population projection
Author(s) -
Tom Wilson,
Philip Rees
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
australian population studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2208-8482
DOI - 10.37970/aps.v5i1.84
Subject(s) - component (thermodynamics) , projection (relational algebra) , workbook , population , computer science , judgement , population projection , projections of population growth , focus (optics) , process (computing) , cohort , data science , econometrics , statistics , mathematics , accounting , demography , algorithm , population growth , sociology , political science , economics , physics , optics , law , thermodynamics , operating system
Background There are surprisingly few resources available which offer an introductory guide to preparing a national population projection using a cohort-component model. Many demography textbooks cover projections quite briefly, and many academic papers on projections focus on advanced technical issues.
Aims The aim of this paper is to provide a short and accessible guide to producing a national-scale population projection using the cohort-component model.
Data and methods The paper describes the cohort-component model from a population accounting perspective, presents all the necessary projection calculations, and covers the key steps which form part of the projections preparation process – from gathering input data to validating outputs. An accompanying Excel workbook implements the model and contains example projections for Australia.
Conclusions Calculating a national population projection using a cohort-component model involves fairly simple algebra, but the broader projections preparation process is more complex, and requires careful consideration and judgement.