Open AccessANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
Author(s) -
A Paul Makesh,
AUTHOR_ID
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
ymer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.103
H-Index - 5
ISSN - 0044-0477
DOI - 10.37896/ymer20.12/29
Subject(s) - ambiguity , risk analysis (engineering) , uncertainty analysis , computer science , project appraisal , risk management , decision analysis , complete information , project risk management , operations research , risk assessment , project management , management science , engineering , systems engineering , mathematics , project management triangle , statistics , business , simulation , computer security , mathematical economics , finance , programming language
This article presents the analysis of uncertainty and effectiveness in cost to construction project. Theoretical part describes various definitions of uncertainty, risk both with there sources as calculation bias, information ambiguity and data inaccuracy in construction projects. Main analysis is connected with the project's appraisal phase and its stages were the detailed information is the crucial factor for correct decision- making procedures under uncertainty and risk. Consequently this article is presenting various types risk what are undistinguishable from uncertainty circumstances in construction. After the description of risk and uncertainty types list of solutions were prepared. Application of the suggested risk and uncertainty extenuating techniques in practice was shown as analysis of precision and bias dependence with available information at different stages of appraisal phase.It is emphasized on uncertainty and risk management problem in the construction's decision- making. Recently methods based on the utility theory, game theory, statistical distribution and probability, were improved and adjusted due to decision-making needs in construction. That is why the model with implemented multiple-criteria approaches is suggested both as a tool for dealing with the uncertainty and risk problems and to meet the needs of project managers in appraisal phase.