Open AccessTerrorism and Tourism
Author(s) -
Mustafa Göktuğ Kaya,
Stephen Taiwo Onifade,
Ayhan Akpınar
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
tourism
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1849-1545
pISSN - 1332-7461
DOI - 10.37741/t.70.1.2
Subject(s) - terrorism , tourism , revenue , government (linguistics) , distributed lag , european union , business , economic policy , turkish , government revenue , economic impact analysis , economy , international trade , economics , political science , finance , law , linguistics , philosophy , econometrics , microeconomics
The booming tourism sector in Turkey has resulted in major economic gains in termsof direct revenues to both government and private sectors alike. Turkey had more than 45 million visits in 2018, and top inbound arrivals were from Russia and European Union (EU) members, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Bulgaria, among others (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2020). However, terrorism is becoming a challenge to tourism development. This study explores terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey. The short- and long-run impacts of terror attacks on tourism revenues were examined within the framework of an autoregressive lag (ARDL) model using monthly data for the period between 2012 and 2018. The empirical findings did not support terrorism's effects on tourism revenues. However, in the long run, terror-related casualties and fatalities ontourism revenues had different effects. The findings affirm that the casualty rate has a stronger impact on terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey because a 1% increase in reported injuries from terror attacks hampers revenues by approximately 0.1%. Hence, adequate and continuous support for general security establishments is imperative while strengthening commitments to the international cooperation on the war againstterrorism to proactively contain the undesirable impacts of terrorism in theTurkish tourism industry,