The "Caucasian component" of the ethno-demographic structure of the regions of Southern Russia: post-Soviet dynamics

Modern Russia is a space of prolonged interaction of many peoples and ethnic groups. The general numerical prevalence in the ethnic structure of Russians is combined, at the same time, with almost ubiquitous "intersperses" of non-ethnic territories, as well as areas and zones characterized by complex inter-ethnic contact that differs in its dynamics. The latter include the vast majority of the regions of the South of Russia (understood as the dual unity of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts), where the manifestations of polyethnicity are predetermined not only by the history of regionogenesis, but also by the factors of geographical proximity, and the issues of ethnodemographic dynamics in the post-Soviet period are particularly relevant. The article (based on the data of the population censuses of 1989, 2002 and 2010) aims to identify (and emphasize) the "Caucasian component" in the transformation of the ethnodemographic structure of the regions of Southern Russia. It is established, in particular, that the" peak " of migration of the peoples of the South Caucasus to the region (focused on the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, Rostov region and Dagestan) occurred in the 1990s, and in the subsequent period, the main ethnodemographic changes were determined by the diffusion of the leading (in terms of their number) autochthonous North Caucasian ethnic groups (Chechens, Avars, Dargins, etc.) from the areas of their own "local development" to the steppe and coastal territories. It is shown that the trend of "Caucasization" of the regions of the Russian South is long-term, stable (and" multi-speed " for individual subjects of the Federation), and its effect can be predicted for the long term.