A species on a tightrope: Establishment limitations of an endangered lichen in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Habitat loss and forest fragmentation affect the dispersal and establishment of species. Furthermore, populations growing far from the species’ optimal climate might be less viable because good‐quality habitat can be scarce and easily altered by smaller changes. The lichen Pectenia plumbea has oceanic climatic requirements, so in the Mediterranean region it needs the humidity provided by well‐preserved forests to thrive, but most of this habitat has disappeared and the remnants are fragmented. In central Spain, this species occupies only a small proportion of the existing forests, so we aimed to determine whether this scattered distribution is due to limitations on dispersal or establishment. METHODS: We selected a Mediterranean fragmented forest surface in central Spain and extracted environmental variables from 371 plots. We modeled the presence and abundance of P. plumbea and developed species distribution models (SDMs) to detect all the suitable habitats inside the Cabañeros National Park area. KEY RESULTS: Pectenia plumbea was present in most of the habitats predicted as good‐quality and was generally absent from the poor‐quality zones (85.9% overall success). The abundance correlated fairly well with that predicted by the SDM (67%). Both models show that P. plumbea is linked to high temperature and precipitation. CONCLUSIONS: Good‐quality habitat requirements for P. plumbea that are similar to oceanic conditions are found only in specific forested, stony slopes derived from historical land management. This habitat is scarce, but P. plumbea has successfully tracked all of these scattered areas via its high dispersal capacity.