Open AccessPredicting COVID-19 epidemiological trend by applying population mobility data in two-stage modeling
Author(s) -
Yuanqing Ye,
Hao Lei,
Chen Chen,
Kejia Hu,
Xiaolin Xu,
Changzheng Yuan,
Shuyin Cao,
Sisi Wang,
Sicong Wang,
Li Shu,
Ying Zhang,
Jinhua Jia,
Qinchuan Wang,
Vermund Sten H,
Zhengping Xu,
Xifeng Wu
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
zhejiang daxue xuebao. yixue ban
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.14
H-Index - 13
ISSN - 1008-9292
DOI - 10.3724/zdxbyxb-2021-0043
Subject(s) - covid-19 , epidemiology , population , stage (stratigraphy) , geography , virology , medicine , biology , environmental health , outbreak , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , paleontology
:To predict the epidemiological trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by mathematical modeling based on the population mobility and the epidemic prevention and control measures. : As of February 82020the information of 151 confirmed cases in YueqingZhejiang province were obtainedincluding patients' infection processpopulation mobility between Yueqing and Wuhanetc. To simulate and predict the development trend of COVID-19 in Yueqing, the study established two-stage mathematical modelsintegrating the population mobility data with the date of symptom appearance of confirmed cases and the transmission dynamics of imported and local cases. : It was found that in the early stage of the pandemicthe number of daily imported cases from Wuhan (using the date of symptom appearance) was positively associated with the number of population travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing on the same day and 6 and 9 days before that. The study predicted that the final outbreak size in Yueqing would be 170 according to the number of imported cases estimated by consulting the population number travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing and the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model; while the number would be 165 if using the reported daily number of imported cases. These estimates were close to the 170the actual monitoring number of cases in Yueqing as of April 272020. : The two-stage modeling approach used in this study can accurately predict COVID-19 epidemiological trend.