Open AccessPrediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process
Author(s) -
Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz,
Mariola Chrzanowska
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
badania operacyjne i decyzje/operations research and decisions
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2081-8858
pISSN - 1230-1868
DOI - 10.37190/ord210307
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , agriculture , backcasting , econometrics , process (computing) , consumption (sociology) , economics , agricultural science , agricultural economics , operations research , computer science , statistics , mathematics , time series , geography , environmental science , archaeology , sustainability , biology , operating system , social science , sociology , ecology
Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in Euro per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.