Analysis of pest risk for Ukraine Cydia inopinata Heinrich

Goal. Carrying-out of a pest risk analysis (PRA) for Ukraine in relation to Cydia inopinata Heinrich (Manchurian moth) — pest of fruit and ornamental crops, according to the EPPO standard PM 5/3 (5) and improvement of methods for assessing the probability of acclimatization of adventive pest organisms beyond existing areas using modern computer software. Methods. Information and analytical, building electronic maps using GIS technologies. Results. There are cited information about the dangerous quarantine pest of fruit crops C. inopinata absent in Ukraine. The ways of possible penetration of the pest into Ukraine were shown, as well as the presence of host plants on the territory of the state are determined and the climatic conditions corresponding to the possibility of settlement and acclimatization are established. The overall pest spreading rate (increase of the infected area) is difficult to estimate. The possibility of natural distribution of the Cydia inopinata is moderately low, and by the anthropogenic way it is very high. Importation of a pest is possible with fruits that are infected with caterpillars of the Manchurian moth from countries of the pest areal. Plants — the owners of C. inopinata are found throughout Ukraine. They are grown for the production of fruits (on a commercial basis or in private gardens), for decorative purposes (in parks, gardens, in urban greening), found in nature or planted in forest belts. Areas with a high density of host plants are more favorable for the settlement of the pest than those with a low density. Due to the adaptation possibilities, the pest can increase the range of plants — hosts in Ukraine. The area of the Manchurian moth is located in several climatic zones: from the subtropical climate in southern China to the sharply continental in Transbaikalia. The compliance of the climate of the central part of the pest area with the climatic conditions of all regions of Ukraine will contribute to the acclimatization of the pest. The absence of extreme winter temperatures, which are characteristic of part of the range in Siberia and in the north of China, will contribute to an increase of the pest population and its harmfulness. The potential habitat of C. inopinata can be almost the entire territory of Ukraine. The main economic impact in the case of local outbreaks will be in farms engaged in the production of fruit products. Electronic maps of the probable area of the Manchurian moth in Ukraine have been built. A pest risk analysis of C. inopinata Heinrich (Manchurian moth) was carried out according to EPPO PM standard 5/3 (5). It was proposed to provide the pest with the status of a quarantine organism absent in Ukraine, to include the species in the A1 list and make changes to the “List of regulated pests of Ukraine”. Conclusions. The high probability of acclimatization of the Manchurian moth in Ukraine is due to the compliance of the climatic conditions with the pest distribution area and a huge number of host plants throughout the territory. The potential habitat of C. inopinata can be almost the entire territory of Ukraine. As an effective measure, it is possible to ban the import of plant fruits — hosts from countries that are the habitat of the Manchurian moth. Analysis of pest risk for Ukraine C. inopinata (Manchurian moth) identified the need to provide the pest with the status of a quarantine organism absent in Ukraine, include the species on the A1 list and make changes to the “List of regulated pests of Ukraine”.