Open AccessSimulation of Population Growth and Distribution based on Centrality of Road Network
Author(s) -
Amila Jayasinghe,
Nima Tenzin,
Chethika Abenayake,
Pks Mahanama
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
international journal of innovative technology and exploring engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2278-3075
DOI - 10.35940/ijitee.j1072.08810s19
Subject(s) - centrality , population , predictability , population growth , closeness , computer science , betweenness centrality , econometrics , geography , statistics , mathematics , demography , mathematical analysis , sociology
This study presents a method to model population growth of spatial units by incorporating measures of road network centrality instead of conventional statistical models of population growth. The proposed model enables the estimation of population growth based on the changes in the urban form represent by the changes in the road network and their centralities. The model has been calibrated and validated for the city of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The proposed model for simulating population growth rate by utilizing Closeness Centrality values and the rate of natural population growth as endogenous variables recorded an accepted level of predictability (R2= 0.87 and MdAPE < 10%). The method demonstrated in this research is an effective tool for understanding and directing the efficient allocation of intelligent road network infrastructure, urban planning and population modeling.