Open AccessHuman Development Index Forecasting using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
international journal of engineering and advanced technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2249-8958
DOI - 10.35940/ijeat.f81420.88619
Subject(s) - ewma chart , human development index , human development (humanity) , index (typography) , statistics , weighted arithmetic mean , government (linguistics) , mathematics , human development report , economic growth , econometrics , geography , economics , computer science , process (computing) , linguistics , philosophy , control chart , world wide web , operating system
Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator to see the ruling government achievement, especially in the human development aspect. It was introduced by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in their 1990 report and integrated three basic dimensions of human development, i.e., the ability to lead a long and healthy life, to acquire knowledge, and to achieve a decent standard of living. Indonesia itself was ranked 113 out of 188 UNDP countries and ranked fifth among ASEAN countries for HDI value based on UNDP Human Development Re-port 2016: Human Development for Everyone. In this study, we are trying to forecast Indonesia’s HDI using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method. EWMA is a popular and widely used method to smooth out random fluctuations. Based on the experiments conducted in 34 provinces in Indonesia, EWMA has been successfully applied to forecast the human development index in Indonesia. It has an average score of MSE and MAPE values at 1.002279153 for MSE and 1.374754513% for MAPE.