Open AccessFORECASTING DEMAND ON THE DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY MARKET ON THE BASIS OF THE RESULTS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS DYNAMICS ANALYSIS
Author(s) -
Mykhailo Orestovych Krutsyak
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
ekonomìčnij analìz
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2219-4649
pISSN - 1993-0259
DOI - 10.35774/econa2018.03.037
Subject(s) - electricity , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , economics , gross domestic product , purchasing power parity , population , electricity market , electric power , purchasing , regression analysis , environmental economics , power (physics) , macroeconomics , statistics , mathematics , operations management , engineering , social science , demography , quantum mechanics , sociology , exchange rate , electrical engineering , physics
The works, which are devoted to the forecasting of demand for electric power, are analysed in this research. A number of these works is identified in order to use the available data. The influence of individual social and economic factors on the volume of annual electricity consumption in Ukraine is investigated. The use of forecasting of demand for electric energy data on the volume of gross domestic product on the parity of purchasing power, GDP energy intensity and the population of Ukraine for the period of 1991-2017 are substantiated, as well as the correlation between them. The annual volumes of electricity consumption are determined. It has been proposed the economic and mathematical model of forecasting and use of multiple regression equations. The method of reduction of the nonlinearity of the dynamics of the investigated factors is considered. We have compared the results, which are obtained after the use of this model, with the results of the available national forecasts.